Forecast of socio-economic development of Leningrad region up to 2035 was updated taking into consideration similar forecast of Russia and analysis of socio-economic development of the region.
Two ways of development of the region were suggested. The first one includes stabilization of dynamics of development and of government investment policy which will lead to restrained economic pace and improvement of the standards of living for the population. The second – target forecast – is based on achievement of indicators defined in the May Decree of the President of the Russian Federation in 2018. It includes implementation of measures aimed at provision of acceleration of economic growth, improvement of demographic situation and quality improvement of the standards of living of the population.
The basic forecast implies growth of the gross regional product by 1.66 times in 2035, its average annual growth will come to 3%. According to the results of 2018, the volume of GRP is expected to come to 1.06 billion rubles and by 2035 – to exceed 3 billion rubles.
Industrial production index in Leningrad region will increase by 1.76 times with average annual growth of 3.4%. Export of Leningrad region will come to 15.7 billion USD by 2035.
The current forecast involves completion of large investment projects announced in 2019-2021 by 2024, and after that the volume of investments in fixed assets will stabilize at the level of 610-640 billion rubles and the share of investments in fixed assets in GRP – at the level of 36%.
According to the forecast, it is planned to construct 51.3 million square meters of housing in Leningrad region over 2019-2035.
The number of small and medium-sized enterprises in Leningrad region will increase by 50% in comparison with 2018 and will amount to 26,500. Gradual increase of the average number of employees in small and medium-sized enterprises up to 236,000 people is also expected. The turnover of small and medium-sized enterprises will come to 800.5 billion rubles (will double in comparison with 2018). Retail turnover will come to 1,357 billion rubles by 2035 and will increase by 1.8 times in comparison with 2018 (average annual growth is 3.6%).
The number of population over the forecast period will increase by almost 187,000 people and will exceed 2 million people.